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    <p>Olá Wagner, <br>
    </p>
    <p>No seu cenário de predição você está considerando apenas o efeito
      espacial. Isso só fará sentido num cenário sem covariáveis ou
      quando nenhuma for importante.<br>
    </p>
    <p>Bwt, não entendi porque você repete exatamente o mesmo cenário em
      'stk.est' e 'stk.val'... para mim é redundante. <br>
    </p>
    <p>Att.<br>
    </p>
    <p>Elias.<br>
    </p>
    <br>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 09/05/2017 17:18, Wagner Wolff via
      R-br wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote
cite="mid:CAOyzcymQy0xSdB47AdScE9W4EO+X33JaXVuNyS0uv=0qOf7BYQ@mail.gmail.com"
      type="cite">
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        <div>Olá pessoal estou fazendo uma modelagem geoestatística pelo
          INLA, mas estou com dúvidas quanto às estimativas para os
          intervalos de credibilidade maiores, p.ex. 95%, para esta
          situação os valores estimados fogem do campo amostral que é de
          0,3 a 0,7. Alguém sabe onde posso configurar para que as
          estimativas fiquem nesse intervalo. Segue o código: <br>
          <br>
          ## Criando domain<br>
          IEBdomain <- inla.nonconvex.hull(as.matrix(<wbr>dados[,1:2]),
          -0.03, -0.05, resolution=c(100,100))<br>
          <br>
          ## Crando mesh<br>
          IEBmesh <- inla.mesh.2d(boundary=<wbr>IEBdomain,
          max.edge=c(35,35), cutoff=35, offset=c(-0.5, -0.5))<br>
          plot(IEBmesh, asp=1, main='')<br>
          <br>
          ## spde matern 0.5 = exponetial<br>
          IEBspde <- inla.spde2.matern(mesh=<wbr>IEBmesh,alpha=2)<br>
          <br>
          mesh.index <- inla.spde.make.index(name = "i",<br>
                                        <wbr>    n.spde =
          IEBspde$n.spde)<br>
          <br>
          ## Matriz projetora estimativa<br>
          A.est <- inla.spde.make.A(IEBmesh,
          loc=as.matrix(dados[,1:2]))<br>
          <br>
          ## Matriz de covariaveis selecionadas pelo AIC, estatistica
          frequentista<br>
          covars <- dados[,c(1:4,6:23)]<br>
          <br>
          stk.est <- inla.stack(data=list(y=dados$<wbr>IEB_ANO),
          A=list(A.est,1), tag="est",<br>
                                effects=list(c(mesh.index,<wbr>list(Intercept=1)),<br>
                                        <wbr>       list(covars)))<br>
          <br>
          stk.val <- inla.stack(data=list(y=NA), A=list(A.est,1),
          tag="est",<br>
                                effects=list(c(mesh.index,<wbr>list(Intercept=1)),<br>
                                        <wbr>       list(covars)))<br>
          ## Matriz projetora predicao<br>
          A.pred = inla.spde.make.A(IEBmesh)<br>
          stk.pred = inla.stack(data = list(y = NA),<br>
                                A = list(A.pred),tag = "pred",<br>
                                effects=list(c(mesh.index,<wbr>list(Intercept=1))))<br>
          <br>
          str(stk.pred)<br>
          stk.all <- inla.stack(stk.est, stk.val,stk.pred)<br>
          <br>
          ## Testar qual variável tem menor DIC<br>
          names(covars)<br>
          f.IEB <- y ~ -1 + Intercept + Dens.dren + f(i,
          model=IEBspde)<br>
          names(inla.models()$<wbr>likelihood)<br>
          r.IEB <-inla(f.IEB,family="beta",
          control.compute=list(dic=TRUE)<wbr>,quantiles=c(0.025,0.1,0.5,
          0.975),<br>
                        data=inla.stack.data(stk.all,<wbr>spde=IEBspde),
          control.predictor=list(A=inla.<wbr>stack.A(stk.all),compute=TRUE)<wbr>)<br>
          <br>
          names(r.IEB)<br>
          r.IEB$dic$dic<br>
          r.IEB$summary.fixed<br>
          r.IEB$summary.hyper[1,]<br>
          r.IEB$summary.hyper[-1,]<br>
          <br>
          result <- inla.spde2.result(r.IEB, "i", IEBspde)<br>
          names(result)<br>
          str(r.IEB$marginals.hyperpar)<br>
          <br>
          ## Posterior mean<br>
          inla.emarginal(function(x) x, result$marginals.variance.<wbr>nominal[[1]])<br>
          inla.emarginal(function(x) x, result$marginals.range.<wbr>nominal[[1]])<br>
          <br>
          ## Quantis<br>
          inla.qmarginal(c(0.025,0.5,0.<wbr>975),
          result$marginals.variance.<wbr>nominal[[1]])<br>
          inla.qmarginal(c(0.025,0.5,0.<wbr>975),
          result$marginals.range.<wbr>nominal[[1]])<br>
          <br>
          par(mfrow=c(2,3), mar=c(3,3.5,0,0), mgp=c(1.5, .5, 0), las=0)<br>
          <br>
          plot(r.IEB$marginals.fix[[1]], type='l',
          xlab=expression(beta[0]), ylab='Density')<br>
          plot(r.IEB$marginals.fix[[2]], type='l',
          xlab=expression(beta[1]),ylab=<wbr>'Density')<br>
          plot(r.IEB$marginals.hy[[1]], type='l',
          xlab=expression(phi),ylab='<wbr>Density')<br>
          <br>
          plot.default(inla.tmarginal(<wbr>function(x) 1/exp(x),
          r.IEB$marginals.hy[[3]]), type='l',<br>
                       xlab=expression(kappa), ylab='Density')<br>
          plot.default(result$marginals.<wbr>variance.nominal[[1]],
          type='l', xlab=expression(sigma[x]^2), ylab='Density')<br>
          plot.default(result$marginals.<wbr>range.nominal[[1]],
          type='l', xlab='Practical range',<br>
                       ylab='Density')<br>
          <br>
          index.pred <- inla.stack.index(stk.all, "pred")$data<br>
          <br>
          names(r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor)<br>
          <br>
          linpred.mean <- r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor[index.pred,"mean"]<br>
          linpred.2.5 <- r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor[index.pred,"0.<wbr>025quant"]<br>
          linpred.10 <- r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor[index.pred,"0.<wbr>1quant"]<br>
          linpred.50 <- r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor[index.pred,"0.<wbr>5quant"]<br>
          linpred.97.5 <- r.IEB$summary.linear.<wbr>predictor[index.pred,"0.<wbr>975quant"]<br>
          <br>
          (nxy <- round(c(diff(c(200,800)), diff(c(6700,7200)))))<br>
          proj <- inla.mesh.projector(IEBmesh, xlim=c(200,800),
          ylim=c(6700,7200), dims=nxy)<br>
          <br>
          lp.mean.grid <- inla.mesh.project(proj, linpred.mean)<br>
          lp.2.5.grid <- inla.mesh.project(proj, linpred.2.5)<br>
          lp.10.grid <- inla.mesh.project(proj, linpred.10)<br>
          lp.50.grid <- inla.mesh.project(proj, linpred.50)<br>
          lp.97.5.grid <- inla.mesh.project(proj, linpred.97.5)<br>
          <br>
          par(mfrow=c(2,3), mar=c(3,3.5,0,0), mgp=c(1.5, .5, 0), las=0)<br>
          <br>
          image(lp.2.5.grid)<br>
          image(lp.10.grid)<br>
          image(lp.mean.grid)<br>
          image(lp.97.5.grid)<br>
          <br>
          <br>
        </div>
        Abraço   <br clear="all">
        <br>
        -- <br>
        <div class="gmail_signature">
          <div dir="ltr"><span style="font-size:medium"><b><i>Wagner
                  Wolff, </i></b></span><i><b>PhD</b></i><br>
            "<b>Luiz de Queiroz</b><b><span>"</span> College of
              Agriculture,</b><br>
            University of São Paulo<br>
            Pádua Dias avenue11 | 13418-900| Piracicaba-SP| Brazil<br>
            Phone:  <a moz-do-not-send="true"
              href="tel:+55%2019%2098238-5582" value="+5519982385582"
              target="_blank">+55 19 982385582</a>  <br>
            <span><span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
                  href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3426-308X"
                  target="_blank">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3426-308X</a><br>
                <a moz-do-not-send="true"
                  href="https://github.com/wwolff7" target="_blank">https://github.com/wwolff7</a><br>
                <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4463141A1"
                  target="_blank">http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4463141A1</a></span></span></div>
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