Legal Leonard, mas as coisas no Brasil estão indo na boa direção, e essas análises cruas não são prática comum somente aqui. Há 2 semanas atrás aconteceu o 3o ESAMP (escola de amostragem e metodologia de pesquisa), em Juiz de Fora, e estas questões foram muito discutidas, e saí de lá bem impressionado e motivado.<div>
Acho que em breve passaremos a ter boas análises feitas por bons bons analistas.<div>Abs<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">Em 9 de dezembro de 2011 11:31, Leonard de Assis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:assis.leonard@gmail.com">assis.leonard@gmail.com</a>></span> escreveu:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
  
    
  
  <div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000">
    Fernando,<br>
    <br>
    foi exatamente isso que quis dizer quando sugeri processos
    estocásticos (Modelos de fluxo migratório, estudantes na escola,
    dentre outros são bem representados por meio de processos
    estocásticos) . Um estudo demográfico caberia bem no problema,
    principalmente porque neste problema, craramente vemos que 10 casos
    em um ano e 10 no ano seguinte não são grandezas comparáveis, a
    primeira providência a ser tomada é torná-la comparável, na mesma
    ordem de grandeza.<br>
    <br>
    Quanto aos modelos lineares generalizados, creio ser possível
    utilizar, pois existem modelos de efeito misto (Mixed effects
    models) que lidam com estruturas de erro correlacionadas de maneira
    temporal. Nunca utilizei estes modelos neste contexto, pode ser
    possível, teria que pensar mais em cima deste problema.<br>
    <br>
    Este  "erro" de se comparar grandezas incomparáveis vem de muito
    tempo no Brasil, basta uma busca simples no Google ou em nossas
    mentes mesmo para acharmos divulgação de "Número de acidentes nas
    rodovias" divulgado por estado ou rodovia. Ora vejamos: Além de cada
    estado possuir malhas viárias de tamanhos diferentes e com
    circulação de veículos diferente, temos diversos outros fatores
    "esquecidos", como condições da rodovia, tipo de relevo, etc.<div class="im"><br>
    <br>
    <pre cols="72">[]s
Leonard de Assis
assis <dot> leonard <at> gmail <dot> com
</pre>
    <br></div>
    Em 09/12/2011 10:23, Fernando Colugnati escreveu:
    <div><div class="h5"><blockquote type="cite">Pessoal, este é um problema clássico de epidemiologia
      e saúde pública, e a comparação deve ser feita estimando-se as
      incidênicas (casos novos/ ano*10.000habitantes, por exemplo, as
      unidades de tempo e população podem mudar), que podem ser via
      modelos de poissson, Binom.-negativo ou algum processo de contagem
      estocástico, como já sugerido. Mas não devem ser esquecidas
      correções para taxas de crescimento populacional, etc...enfim,
      como disse, é bem clássico. Este aumento pode ser um efeito de
      coorte (age-cohort effect), por exemplo.
      <div>
        <br>
      </div>
      <div>Lembre-se de onde vêm estes dados, são nacionais, regionais?
        Vieram de alguma base do MS (datasus)? É apenas a cobertura do
        SUS? A modelagem  estatística só pode ser bem definida se vc
        souber o que estes dados representam, quais correções utilizar,
        etc...senão estará estimado apenas viéses, que até é importante,
        mas pra outros objetivos.</div>
      <div><br>
      </div>
      <div>Abs<br>
        <br>
        <div class="gmail_quote">Em 8 de dezembro de 2011 23:20, Leonard
          de Assis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:assis.leonard@gmail.com" target="_blank">assis.leonard@gmail.com</a>></span>
          escreveu:<br>
          <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
            <div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"> Dani,<br>
              <br>
              Existem várias formas de se analisar estes dados. Eu
              particularmente tentaria unir estas informações fazendo
              uma estratégia de processos estocásticos (Acho teorico
              demais, mas é mais desafiante). O desafio encontra-se na
              forte correlação temporal envolvida em tudo.<br>
              <br>
              Se partir para modelos lineares, creio que Poisson não
              seja uma boa idéia, pois ficva meio "fora de escala'. O
              ideal seria smnalisar a proporç~~ao que estes casos
              representam na população em estudo.<br>
              <br>
              Mas tudo isso é só palpite, cada um tem seu jeito de
              pensar e abordar determinados problemas.<br>
              <br>
              <br>
              <pre cols="72">[]s
Leonard de Assis
assis <dot> leonard <at> gmail <dot> com
</pre>
              <br>
              Em 08/12/2011 11:24, Daniela Recchia escreveu:
              <blockquote type="cite"> <span> </span>
                <div>
                  <div>
                    <div>
                      <div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt">
                        <div><span>Olá
                            pessoal,</span></div>
                        <div><span><br>
                          </span></div>
                        <div><span>a
                            pergunta é mais teórica. Estou analisando o
                            comportamento do sarampo ao longo dos anos.
                            Aqui, em 1999 foi criada a lei que diz que
                            as criancas devem ser vacinadas contra
                            sarampo, cachumba e rubéola em 2 doses de
                            vacinas, para a garantia de aproximadamente
                            99% de protecao contra as doencas.</span></div>
                        <div><span><br>
                          </span></div>
                        <div><span>Mas a
                            princípio, parece que ao decorrer do tempo
                            (analiso de 2001 a 2011) o numero de
                            criancas com sarampo realmente diminui, após
                            essa campanha. Existem sim ainda algumas,
                            devido a varios fatores (pais nao querem
                            vacinar os filhos, as criancas só tomam 1
                            vacina...) mas o numero de adultos que
                            apresentam sarampo tem aumentado, se
                            comparado ao inicio da campanha. Por
                            exemplo, se olhar os dados de doentes no
                            peridio de 2003-2005 e 2009-2011 os adultos
                            infectados nesses ultimos anos sao bem mais
                            do que nos primeiros. (Na verdade nas idades
                            de 15-39 anos)</span></div>
                        <div><span><br>
                          </span></div>
                        <div>Entao a
                          pincipio tenho dados para os doentes ao longo
                          dos anos e por idade, algo como:</div>
                        <div>
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>> dados2</div>
                          <div>   Altersgruppe <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2001
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2002

                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2003
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2004
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2005

                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2006
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2007
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2008

                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2009<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            2010 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2011</div>
                          <div>1         00-00  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>107
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>156

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>39
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>14

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>38
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>156

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>24
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>28

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>50
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            29   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>66</div>
                          <div>2         01-01  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>524
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>405

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>81
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>22

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>57
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>157

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>35
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>50

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            63  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            41   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>96</div>
                          <div>3         02-02  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>420
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>313

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>42
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>9  
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>30
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>68

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>20
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>31

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            15   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>25
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>49</div>
                          <div>4         03-03  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>359
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>320

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>71
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>10

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>40
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>73

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>25
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>42

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            20   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>16
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>47</div>
                          <div>5         04-04  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>397
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>375

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>56
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>5
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>42
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            82   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>21
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>46

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>17
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            19   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>42</div>
                          <div>6         05-09 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>1594<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            1527<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>262
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>17

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>250
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>446
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>123

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>210
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>83
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>127


                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>293</div>
                          <div>7         10-14 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>1034<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                             803  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>112
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>8
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>136
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>515
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>116

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>217
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>72
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>179

                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>340</div>
                          <div>8         <span style="background-color:rgb(255,159,64)">15-19
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 786

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 356
                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>48

                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>11
                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>56

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>375
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              68  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>139
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              74  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>133
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>218</span></div>
                          <div><span style="background-color:rgb(255,159,64)">9
                                      20-24 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 376
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 147

                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>26
                                 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              37  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>135

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              39   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span>44   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>55
                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>64

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>126</span></div>
                          <div><span style="background-color:rgb(255,159,64)">10
                                     25-29<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                               175<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                                85   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span>12    <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>8
                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>31
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>110

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              32   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span>41  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              49   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span>45   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>99</span></div>
                          <div><span style="background-color:rgb(255,159,64)">11
                                     30-39<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                               168<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                               124  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span> 14    <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>6
                                <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>45
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>122

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              49   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap">
                              </span>46  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              51  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                              67  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>124</span></div>
                          <div>12        40-49<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>  
                            49 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 
                            29   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>11
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>8
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>13
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>39

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>11  
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>13  
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>17
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                            28   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>70</div>
                          <div>13        50-59<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>  
                            17 <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 
                             7    <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>3
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>2
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 3
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>19

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 3
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 6  
                            <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 3
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>4
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>8</div>
                          <div>14        60-69<span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>  
                             9  <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>
                             3    <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>1
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 3
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>8
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>1
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 0
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 3

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>3</div>
                          <div>15           70   <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 1  
                             <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>3
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0 
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>3
                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>0
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 0

                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 2
                              <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span> 0

                               <span style="white-space:pre-wrap"> </span>3</div>
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>A minha idéia entao é rodar umt este
                            estatistico, para a hipótese nula H0: a
                            proporcao(?) ou o numero de adultos doentes
                            no periodo 2003-2005 nao se diferencia
                            significativamente dos doentes no periodo de
                            2009-2011.</div>
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>Tudo bem, meu próximo passo entao foi
                            agrupar os dados, de talforma que tenho
                            agora grupo de pessoas de 0 a 4 anos, 5 a 14
                            anos, 15 a 39 anos e acima de 40 anos. Para
                            analisar por pediordos, simplesmente somei
                            os casos para os anos de 2003-2005 e
                            2009-2011. Ok, agora tenho um numero por
                            periodo e por grupo. Como compara-los
                            efetivamente? Pois do jeito que retrabalhei
                            os dados, nao consigo aplicar o teste T para
                            2 populacoes, nao tenho como medir
                            normalidade e homocedasticidade. Na verdade,
                            nao sei se o jeito que formatei os dados
                            para a análise está correta para analisar a
                            hipótese desejada.</div>
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>Como vcs fariam?</div>
                          <div><br>
                          </div>
                          <div>Abracos,</div>
                        </div>
                        <div> </div>
                        <div>-- <br>
                          Daniela Rodrigues Recchia</div>
                        <div><br>
                        </div>
                        <div>Master
                          Student of Statistics - Technische Universität
                          Dortmund.</div>
                        <div><br>
                        </div>
                        <div>"It is
                          better to have an inexact answer to the
                          right question than a precise one to the wrong
                          question!"</div>
                        <div>John Tuckey</div>
                        <div> </div>
                      </div>
                    </div>
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              </blockquote>
            </div>
            <br>
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          </blockquote>
        </div>
        <br>
        <br clear="all">
        <div><br>
        </div>
        -- <br>
        Fernando A.B. Colugnati<br>
        <br>
        <br>
      </div>
    </blockquote>
  </div></div></div>

</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br>Fernando A.B. Colugnati<br><br><br>
</div></div>