<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><span>Olá pessoal,</span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><span><br></span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><span>a pergunta é mais teórica. Estou analisando o comportamento do sarampo ao longo dos anos. Aqui, em 1999 foi criada a lei que diz que as criancas devem ser vacinadas contra sarampo, cachumba e rubéola em 2 doses de vacinas, para a garantia de aproximadamente 99% de protecao contra as doencas.</span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><span><br></span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;
"><span>Mas a princípio, parece que ao decorrer do tempo (analiso de 2001 a 2011) o numero de criancas com sarampo realmente diminui, após essa campanha. Existem sim ainda algumas, devido a varios fatores (pais nao querem vacinar os filhos, as criancas só tomam 1 vacina...) mas o numero de adultos que apresentam sarampo tem aumentado, se comparado ao inicio da campanha. Por exemplo, se olhar os dados de doentes no peridio de 2003-2005 e 2009-2011 os adultos infectados nesses ultimos anos sao bem mais do que nos primeiros. (Na verdade nas idades de 15-39 anos)</span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><span><br></span></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Entao a pincipio tenho dados para os doentes ao longo dos anos e por idade, algo como:</div><div><div><br></div><div>> dados2</div><div> Altersgruppe <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2001 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2002 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2003 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2004 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2005 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2006 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2007 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2008 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2009<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 2010 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2011</div><div>1 00-00 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>107 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>156 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre"> </span>39 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>14 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>38 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>156 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>24 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>28 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>50 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 29 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>66</div><div>2 01-01 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>524 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>405 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>81 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>22 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>57 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>157 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>35 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>50 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 63 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 41 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>96</div><div>3 02-02 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>420 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>313 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>42 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>9 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>30
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>68 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>20 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>31 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 15 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>25 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>49</div><div>4 03-03 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>359 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>320 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>71 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>10 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>40 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>73
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>25 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>42 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 20 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>16 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>47</div><div>5 04-04 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>397 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>375 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>56 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>5 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>42 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 82 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>21 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre">
</span>46 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>17 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 19 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>42</div><div>6 05-09 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>1594<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 1527<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>262 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>17 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>250 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>446 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>123 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>210 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>83 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>127
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>293</div><div>7 10-14 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>1034<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 803 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>112 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>8 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>136 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>515 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>116 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>217 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>72 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>179 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>340</div><div>8 <span
class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">15-19 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 786 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 356 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>48 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>11 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>56 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>375 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 68 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>139 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 74 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>133 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>218</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">9
20-24 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 376 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 147 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>26 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 37 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>135 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 39 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>44 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>55 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>64 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>126</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">10 25-29<span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 175<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 85 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>12 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>8 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>31 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>110 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 32 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>41 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 49 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>45 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>99</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">11 30-39<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre">
</span> 168<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 124 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 14 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>6 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>45 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>122 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 49 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>46 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 51 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 67 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>124</span></div><div>12 40-49<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 49 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 29 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>11 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>8 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>13 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>39 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>11 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>13 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>17 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 28 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>70</div><div>13 50-59<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 17 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 7
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>2 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>19 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 6 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>4 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>8</div><div>14 60-69<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 9 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>1 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>8 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>1 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3</div><div>15 70 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 1 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 2 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> 0 <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3</div><div><br></div><div>A minha idéia entao é rodar umt este estatistico, para a hipótese nula H0: a proporcao(?) ou o numero de adultos doentes no periodo 2003-2005 nao se diferencia significativamente dos doentes no periodo de 2009-2011.</div><div><br></div><div>Tudo bem, meu próximo
passo entao foi agrupar os dados, de talforma que tenho agora grupo de pessoas de 0 a 4 anos, 5 a 14 anos, 15 a 39 anos e acima de 40 anos. Para analisar por pediordos, simplesmente somei os casos para os anos de 2003-2005 e 2009-2011. Ok, agora tenho um numero por periodo e por grupo. Como compara-los efetivamente? Pois do jeito que retrabalhei os dados, nao consigo aplicar o teste T para 2 populacoes, nao tenho como medir normalidade e homocedasticidade. Na verdade, nao sei se o jeito que formatei os dados para a análise está correta para analisar a hipótese desejada.</div><div><br></div><div>Como vcs fariam?</div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Abracos,</div></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "> </div><div style="font-family: 'times
new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">-- <br>Daniela Rodrigues Recchia</div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">Master Student of Statistics - Technische Universität Dortmund.</div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "><br></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; "></div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">"It is better to have an inexact answer to the right question than a precise one to the wrong question!"</div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt; ">John Tuckey</div><div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york', times, serif; font-size: 12pt;
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