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Dani,<br>
<br>
Existem várias formas de se analisar estes dados. Eu particularmente
tentaria unir estas informações fazendo uma estratégia de processos
estocásticos (Acho teorico demais, mas é mais desafiante). O desafio
encontra-se na forte correlação temporal envolvida em tudo.<br>
<br>
Se partir para modelos lineares, creio que Poisson não seja uma boa
idéia, pois ficva meio "fora de escala'. O ideal seria smnalisar a
proporç~~ao que estes casos representam na população em estudo.<br>
<br>
Mas tudo isso é só palpite, cada um tem seu jeito de pensar e
abordar determinados problemas.<br>
<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">[]s
Leonard de Assis
assis <dot> leonard <at> gmail <dot> com
</pre>
<br>
Em 08/12/2011 11:24, Daniela Recchia escreveu:
<blockquote
cite="mid:1323350644.79028.YahooMailNeo@web112409.mail.gq1.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<span style="display:none"> </span>
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<div
style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:times
new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;">
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span>Olá pessoal,</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span>a pergunta é mais
teórica. Estou analisando o comportamento do sarampo
ao longo dos anos. Aqui, em 1999 foi criada a lei que
diz que as criancas devem ser vacinadas contra
sarampo, cachumba e rubéola em 2 doses de vacinas,
para a garantia de aproximadamente 99% de protecao
contra as doencas.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span>Mas a princípio,
parece que ao decorrer do tempo (analiso de 2001 a
2011) o numero de criancas com sarampo realmente
diminui, após essa campanha. Existem sim ainda
algumas, devido a varios fatores (pais nao querem
vacinar os filhos, as criancas só tomam 1 vacina...)
mas o numero de adultos que apresentam sarampo tem
aumentado, se comparado ao inicio da campanha. Por
exemplo, se olhar os dados de doentes no peridio de
2003-2005 e 2009-2011 os adultos infectados nesses
ultimos anos sao bem mais do que nos primeiros. (Na
verdade nas idades de 15-39 anos)</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><span><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">Entao a pincipio tenho
dados para os doentes ao longo dos anos e por idade,
algo como:</div>
<div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>> dados2</div>
<div> Altersgruppe <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2001 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2002
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>2003 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2004 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2005
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>2006 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2007 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2008
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>2009<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 2010 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2011</div>
<div>1 00-00 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>107 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>156
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>39 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>14
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>38 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>156
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>24 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>28
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>50 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
29 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>66</div>
<div>2 01-01 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>524 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>405
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>81 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>22
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>57 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>157
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>35 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>50
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span> 63 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 41 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>96</div>
<div>3 02-02 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>420 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>313
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>42 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>9
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>30 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>68
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>20 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>31
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span> 15 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>25 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span><span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>49</div>
<div>4 03-03 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>359 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>320
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>71 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>10
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>40 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>73
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>25 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>42
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span> 20 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>16 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>47</div>
<div>5 04-04 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>397 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>375
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>56 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>5
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>42 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
82 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>21 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>46
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>17 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
19 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>42</div>
<div>6 05-09 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>1594<span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
1527<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>262 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>17
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>250 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>446 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>123
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>210 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>83 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>127
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>293</div>
<div>7 10-14 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>1034<span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
803 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>112 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>8
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>136 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>515 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>116
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>217 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>72 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>179
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;">
</span>340</div>
<div>8 <span class="Apple-style-span"
style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">15-19 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 786
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 356 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>48
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>11 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>56
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>375 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
68 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>139 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
74 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>133 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>218</span></div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span"
style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">9
20-24 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 376 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 147
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>26 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 37 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>135
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 39 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>44
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>55 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>64
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>126</span></div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span"
style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">10
25-29<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 175<span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
85 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>12 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>8
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>31 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>110
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 32 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>41
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 49 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>45
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>99</span></div>
<div><span class="Apple-style-span"
style="background-color: rgb(255, 159, 64);">11
30-39<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 168<span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
124 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 14 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>6
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>45 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>122
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 49 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>46
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 51 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
67 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>124</span></div>
<div>12 40-49<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 49 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
29 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>11 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>8
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>13 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>39
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span><span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>11
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span><span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>13
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>17 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
28 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>70</div>
<div>13 50-59<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 17 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
7 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>3 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>2
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 3 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>19
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span><span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 3
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span><span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 6
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 3 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>4
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>8</div>
<div>14 60-69<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 9 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>
3 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>1
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 3 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>8
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>1
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 3
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>3</div>
<div>15 70 <span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 1 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>3
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span>3
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>0 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 0
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 2 <span
class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre;"> </span> 0
<span class="Apple-tab-span"
style="white-space:pre;"> </span>3</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>A minha idéia entao é rodar umt este estatistico,
para a hipótese nula H0: a proporcao(?) ou o numero de
adultos doentes no periodo 2003-2005 nao se diferencia
significativamente dos doentes no periodo de
2009-2011.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Tudo bem, meu próximo passo entao foi agrupar os
dados, de talforma que tenho agora grupo de pessoas de
0 a 4 anos, 5 a 14 anos, 15 a 39 anos e acima de 40
anos. Para analisar por pediordos, simplesmente somei
os casos para os anos de 2003-2005 e 2009-2011. Ok,
agora tenho um numero por periodo e por grupo. Como
compara-los efetivamente? Pois do jeito que
retrabalhei os dados, nao consigo aplicar o teste T
para 2 populacoes, nao tenho como medir normalidade e
homocedasticidade. Na verdade, nao sei se o jeito que
formatei os dados para a análise está correta para
analisar a hipótese desejada.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Como vcs fariam?</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">Abracos,</div>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"> </div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">-- <br>
Daniela Rodrigues Recchia</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">Master Student of
Statistics - Technische Universität Dortmund.</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">"It is better to have an
inexact answer to the right question than a precise one
to the wrong question!"</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;">John Tuckey</div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman', 'new york',
times, serif;font-size: 12pt;"> </div>
</div>
</div>
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